Monday, 2 February 2026

Black Monday? Earnings Week. Chairman Warsh. Fake Coffee.

Baltic Dry Index. 2148 +146    Brent Crude 65.48

Spot Gold  4556                          Spot Silver 72.96

US 2 Year Yield 3.52 -0.01

US Federal Debt. 38.684 trillion US GDP 31.117 trillion.

"Liquidation sometimes is orderly, but more frequently degenerates into panic as the realization spreads that there is only so much money, not enough to enable everyone to sell out at the top."

Charles P. Kindleberger, author Manias, panics and crashes.

After Friday’s rout in precious metals and cryptocurrencies, will the commodities selloff broaden out into a stock casinos selloff this week?

Are the stock casinos heading into a Black Monday?

It’s too early to tell yet, but the early action in Asia suggests great caution. A general stock casinos selloff has much more severe consequences than a rout in the much smaller commodities markets.

In the USA, a stock casino selloff risks bursting the Great AI Bubble.

Today’s stock casinos close in Europe and the USA will likely determine the stock casinos direction for the rest of the week.

South Korea stocks fall more than 4%, triggering temporary halt on Kospi index

Published Sun, Feb 1 2026 6:55 PM EST

South Korean benchmarks tumbled Monday, leading wider declines in the region.

The Kospi index fell more than 4%, while the Kospi 200 futures dropped as much as 5%, prompting authorities to temporarily halt trading, according to an official note. Index heavyweights SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were down 6.66% and 5.55%, respectively.

The small-cap Kosdaq lost 4.45%.

Asia-Pacific markets fell Monday as investors assessed private data for China’s factory activity in January, while gold extended losses from Friday.

China’s factory activity gathered speed in January, according to a private survey released Monday, as manufacturers accelerated production and loaded cargoes ahead of the extended Lunar New Year holiday.

The RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI, conducted by S&P Global, rose to 50.3 in January from 50.1 the previous month, in line with analysts’ expectations of 50.3 in a Reuters poll. A reading above the 50 benchmark indicates an expansion, while one below that suggests contraction.

That marked the strongest level since October, when the private-surveyed PMI came in at 50.6.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 added 0.13%, while the Topix added 0.52%.

Hong Kong Hang Seng index declined 1.64%, while the mainland CSI 300 is down 0.68%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 declined 1%.

Gold and silver are in focus after Friday’s sharp declines. Spot gold was trading 5% lower at $4,612 per ounce, while silver slid around 4% to $81.189 per ounce.

Silver prices, which had more than doubled over the past 12 months, plunged around 30% last Friday, marking the metal’s worst one-day performance since 1980. Gold also dropped around 9%.

Futures tied to the main U.S. benchmarks fell during early Asia hours as Wall Street begins a new month of trading, with traders keeping an eye on bitcoin after a weekend sell-off.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 143 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.6%, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed nearly 1%.

Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 for the first time since April, a sign investors were taking more risk off the table following the sharp declines in gold and silver.

Bitcoin last traded around $76,700.

Last Friday, U.S. stocks retreated as technology shares remained in a funk, even as investors largely approved of U.S. President Donald Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve.

Still, the S&P 500 squeaked out a January gain, despite Friday’s losses and volatile trading this month. The broad index fell 0.43% to finish at 6,939.03, its third straight down day.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled back 0.36%, to settle at 48,892.47. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite underperformed, dropping 0.94%, to end the day at 23,461.82. All three indexes fell more than 1% at session lows.

Asia-Pacific markets: Hang Seng Index, CSI 300, gold, silver

Stock futures fall after silver, bitcoin sell off; questions loom over AI trade: Live updates

Updated Sun, Feb 1 2026 6:30 PM EST

Stock futures fell on Sunday night as Wall Street begins a new month of trading, with traders keeping an eye on bitcoin after a weekend sell-off.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 143 points, or 0.3%. S&P 500 futures dipped 0.6%, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed nearly 1%.

Bitcoin dropped below $80,000 for the first time since April, a sign investors were taking more risk off the table following Friday’s sharp declines in gold and silver. Silver, which has more than doubled over the past 12 months, plunged around 30% on Friday. That marked the metal’s worst one-day performance since 1980. Gold also dropped around 9%.

Bitcoin last traded near $76,000.

Wall Street also turned its attention to Nvidia as questions over the artificial intelligence loomed.

The Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Nvidia’s plans to pour $100 billion into OpenAI had stalled, with chipmaker execs expressing doubt about the deal.

Big earnings, jobs week

More than 100 S&P 500 companies are due to report this week, including Amazon, Alphabet and Disney. The overall reporting season has been strong thus far, but there have been some high-profile post-earnings sell-offs, including Microsoft.

Nonetheless, Deutsche Bank strategists noted this weekend that earnings growth is on track to be the strongest in four years.

Wall Street is also awaiting the release of the January U.S. jobs report, due Friday morning. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect 55,000 jobs were added last month.

Stocks are coming off a losing session, with the major benchmarks falling after President Donald Trump named Kevin Warsh as his nominee for Federal Reserve chairman. If confirmed, Warsh would replace Jerome Powell later this year.

Stock market today: Live updates

Gold dives 5% and silver crashes 10%, extending sell-off in precious metals after historic plunge

Published Sun, Feb 1 2026 8:47 PM EST

Gold and silver extended their sell-off Monday, deepening losses from last Friday’s rout as a firmer dollar and profit-taking drains momentum from a rally that had propelled the precious metals to record highs just days earlier.

Spot gold lost around 5% to $4,611.4 per ounce, having crashed nearly 10% on Friday, when prices plunged below $5,000 an ounce. 

Silver, which had surged alongside gold on safe haven demand and speculative inflows, also remained under pressure after last Friday’s 30% nosedive that saw the metal log its worst day since March 1980.

Spot prices of the white metal were down more than 10% at $76.1138 per ounce as of 11.03 p.m. ET Wednesday.

According to analysts, the pullback followed a violent reversal on Friday, when optimism around U.S. interest-rate cuts collided with a sudden reassessment of Federal Reserve leadership after President Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Chair Jerome Powell after his term ends in May.

“The ‘Buy America’ trade is back as a result, and the independence bid that drove gold and silver to nosebleed record heights right below $5,600 and $122 per ounce early Thursday morning is unraveling,” José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, said in a note on Monday.

Christopher Forbes, head of Asia and the Middle East at CMC Markets, said gold’s sharp retreat reflects a classic correction after an extraordinary rally rather than a breakdown in the longer-term bullish thesis.

Gold’s retreat is a “classic air-pocket after an extraordinary run,” Forbes said. “Profit-taking, a firmer dollar, and fresh geopolitical headlines from Washington have knocked froth off a crowded trade.”

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the greenback against a basket of currencies, has strengthened about 0.8% since Thursday.

More

Gold dives 5% and silver crashes 10%, extending sell-off in precious metals after historic plunge

Wall St Week Ahead Heavy earnings week, jobs data to test US stocks after Microsoft swoon

January 30, 2026 11:06 AM GMT

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Another huge batch of corporate earnings including from megacaps Alphabet (GOOGL.O), opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O), opens new tab will test the U.S. stock ​market in the coming week after a disappointing report from heavyweight Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab weighed on equity indexes.

Wall Street also will focus on the monthly U.S. jobs report ‌due on February 6. This week, the Federal Reserve pointed to signs of stabilization in the labor market as the U.S. central bank paused its interest rate-cutting cycle.

With the stock market entering the fourth year of a bull market, investors have been wary of rising valuations, particularly for high-flying names benefiting from optimism over artificial-intelligence-driven profits.

Microsoft, which has spent massively on infrastructure to support AI applications, saw its shares battered on Thursday after its cloud business failed to impress, while software shares were broadly punished amid further disappointment elsewhere in the industry.

"For those companies where expectations have become very, very lofty, the ‌onus is going to be on them to deliver," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer with Plante Moran Financial Advisors. "Even if they show ​growth, if it is growth that is not up to the expectations of the market, there is a risk there that their stock price could be punished."

Despite declining at the end of the week, the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab remained up over 1% for the year and not far from record-high levels. The index earlier in the week broke above the 7,000 level for ‍the first time, before pulling back.

Investors in the coming days will continue to digest a series of developments on Friday, including President Donald Trump's nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to be the central bank's next chair. Stunning declines in prices of gold and silver on Friday, following huge climbs for the precious metals, also kept markets on edge.

BIG EARNINGS WEEK ON TAP

About one quarter of the S&P 500 is set ⁠to report quarterly results in the coming week, with strong expected U.S. profit growth a key source of optimism underpinning bullish outlooks for equities in 2026.

Of 166 S&P 500 companies that reported ‍results as of Friday, 76.5% posted earnings above analysts' expectations, nearly in line with the 78% rate over the prior four quarters, according to LSEG IBES. Fourth-quarter earnings are expected to have climbed 10.9% ‌from a ‌year earlier.

In contrast to Microsoft, Meta Platforms (META.O), opens new tab -- another megacap company and major AI spender -- posted strong sales in its quarterly report that boosted its shares on Thursday.

Investors will now focus on results and capital spending plans from Google parent Alphabet and Amazon, two other AI-focused "hyperscalers."

"Although investor reaction to earnings announcements from a couple of the hyperscalers was mixed, it did confirm that capex spending on building out AI infrastructure will not see any letup," said Sid Vaidya, chief investment strategist at TD Wealth.

Other companies set to report next week include weight-loss drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY.N), opens new tab, chipmaker Advanced ⁠Micro Devices (AMD.O), opens new tab and media giant Walt Disney (DIS.N), opens new tab. S&P ⁠500 companies overall are expected to increase ​earnings by 15% in 2026, putting their financial outlooks under the microscope.

Wall St Week Ahead Heavy earnings week, jobs data to test US stocks after Microsoft swoon | Reuters

What Trump Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh may mean for consumers

Published Fri, Jan 30 2026 12:44 PM EST

President Donald Trump has picked Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve. In keeping with the president’s push for lower interest rates, Warsh is expected to be more supportive of cutting the Fed’s key benchmark rate later this year.

“I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best,” said Trump in a Truth Social post on Friday.

Fed board members are nominated by the president but must be approved by the Senate. If confirmed, Warsh will take over for Powell when his term ends in May, opening the door to a potential change in the direction of monetary policy over the second half of 2026.

Warsh, a former Fed governor with a Wall Street background, has been critical of the central bank’s handling of inflation in the past and told CNBC in July that its hesitancy to cut interest rates undermined its credibility. 

“Based on his past statements and actions in his previous stint as a Fed Governor, Warsh was by far the most hawkish of the four final candidates for Fed Chair,” said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School.

----The Fed’s benchmark sets the rate that banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also affects almost all consumer borrowing and savings rates.

Generally, short-term rates, like credit card rates, are closely pegged to the Fed’s benchmark. Longer-term rates, like mortgage rates, are more influenced by inflation and other economic factors.

“There was no person who was going to get this job who wasn’t going to be cutting rates in the short term,” David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of The Bahnsen Group, said Friday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

In the 1970s, then-President Richard Nixon, pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep interest rates low — and give the economy some gas — in the run-up to the 1972 presidential election.

That set the stage for runaway inflation, economists now say. Consumer prices surged in the decade that followed and the inflation rate peaked at around 15% in 1980, which remains the highest rate since the post-World War II period.

The Fed ultimately, under new leadership, raised interest rates to punishing levels to rein in inflation, leading to surging borrowing costs in the ’80s.

“The message to households is uncomfortable but important,” Higgins said. “Accepting shorter, more acute economic pain now is preferable to prolonged inflation that continues to erode purchasing power. History is unambiguous on this point.”

Trump Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh: What the change means for consumers

In other news.

More than 200 killed in coltan mine collapse in east Congo, official says

January 30, 2026 9:06 PM GMT

Jan 30 (Reuters) - More than 200 people were killed this week in a collapse at the Rubaya coltan mine in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Lumumba Kambere Muyisa, spokesperson for the rebel-appointed governor of the province where the mine is located, told Reuters on Friday.

Rubaya produces around 15% of the world's coltan, which is processed into tantalum, a heat-resistant metal that is in high demand by makers of mobile phones, computers, aerospace components and gas turbines. The site, where locals dig manually for a few dollars per day, has been under the control of the AFC/M23 rebel group since 2024.

The United Nations says AFC/M23 has plundered Rubaya's riches to help fund its insurgency, backed by the government of neighboring Rwanda, an allegation Kigali denies.

The heavily-armed rebels, whose stated aim is to overthrow the government in Kinshasa and ensure the safety of the Congolese Tutsi minority, captured even more mineral-rich territory in eastern Congo during a lightning advance last year.

More than 200 killed in coltan mine collapse in east Congo, official says | Reuters

Vietnam police seize tons of fake coffee products made from soybeans

January 30, 2026 1:23 AM GMT

HANOI, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Police in Vietnam have launched a criminal investigation into a warehouse accused of producing fake coffee made from soybeans following a raid earlier this week, the Ministry of Public Security said on Thursday.

The police seized 4.1 tons of fake coffee products and 3 tons of raw materials during the raid, which took place in the Central Highlands province of Lam Dong, the ministry said in a statement.

Vietnam is the world's largest producer of Robusta coffee, which has a bitter taste and is used mainly in instant coffee. The Central Highlands is the country's key coffee growing area.

Luong Viet Kiem, the owner of the warehouse, admitted to the police that his firm mixed soybeans and flavourings with coffee beans to produce ground coffee for the local market, according to the statement.

Reuters couldn't immediately reach Kiem for comment.

The police said the warehouse raid came following a search on Tuesday of a truck carrying 1,056 bags of ground coffee weighing 528 kilograms, which had no accompanying documentation.

Further investigations are underway, they said.

"Fake coffee products are not rare, and they can be made from soybean or corn, or even both," said Nguyen Quang Tho, a coffee trader based in the neighbouring province of Dak Lak.

"Soybeans and corn are edible and a lot cheaper than real coffee beans, but who knows if it's safe for the health to drink these fake coffee products," Tho trader.

Farmers in the Central Highlands are selling coffee beans at 100,500-100,100 dong ($3.86) per kg, around three times higher than the price for soybeans.

In 2018, police in the Central Highlands arrested five people suspected of using battery chemicals to dye waste coffee beans and sell the mixture as black pepper.

Vietnam exported 1.6 million tons of coffee valued at $8.9 billion last year, up 18.3% in volume and 58.8% in value, according to the government's customs data.

Vietnam police seize tons of fake coffee products made from soybeans | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Surprise inflation rise triggers panic over future of UK interest rates

1 February 2025

The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain the current base interest rate at 3.75% in its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision of the year, following a recent uptick in inflation. The announcement, due Thursday, comes amid cautious optimism about economic momentum and growing concerns about persistent price pressures.

Recent official data has shown that Consumer Prices Index(CPI) inflation edged up in December, interrupting a five-month decline. The rebound has added weight to predictions that the MPC will pause any further reductions in borrowing costs for the time being.

Modest Growth and Sticky Prices Challenge Further Easing

According to Investec economist Philip Shaw, the main argument for maintaining rates lies in the inflation figures for December, which stood at 3.4%, up from 3.2% the month prior. This places inflation notably above the Bank’s 2% target, even if it falls slightly below the November forecast of 3.5%.

The rise was driven in part by increased tobacco duties and airfare costs, as confirmed by official statistics. While not a dramatic surge, the change appears to have been enough to make back-to-back rate cuts unlikely. “The principal reason to hold off from easing again is that at 3.4% in December, inflation remains well above the 2% target,” Shaw noted.

Further complicating the picture, wage growth continues to trouble policymakers. According to several economists, including Matt Swannell of the EY ITEM Club, there are lingering concerns among MPC members about sticky wage inflation, which may help sustain broader price pressures in the coming months. “Although the data over the last few weeks has tilted in a slightly dovish direction, this does not appear to be anywhere near enough to prompt a majority of the MPC to favour back-to-back cuts,” Swannell said.

More

Surprise inflation rise triggers panic over future of UK interest rates

China January official manufacturing PMI drops to 49.3

January 31, 2026

SHENZHEN, China, Jan 31 (Reuters) - China's factory activity faltered in January as weak domestic demand dragged down production at the start of the new year, an official survey showed on Saturday.

The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 49.3 in January, from 50.1 in December, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction.

It missed a forecast of 50.0 in a Reuters poll of analysts.

Sub-indexes of new orders and new export orders also saw declines, respectively down to 49.2 from 50.8 in December and 47.8 from 49.0 in December.

More

China January official manufacturing PMI drops to 49.3 | Reuters

US producer prices post biggest gain in five months, businesses passing on tariffs

January 30, 2026 1:55 PM GMT

WASHINGTON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. producer prices increased by the most in five months in December amid some pass-through from import tariffs, suggesting inflation could pick up in the months ahead and allow the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady ​for a while.

The larger-than-expected rise in the Producer Price Index last month reported by the Labor Department on Friday was driven by a surge in services, mostly trade services, ‌which measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. There were also strong increases in the prices of hotel and motel rooms as well as airline fares. But goods prices were unchanged.

The U.S. central bank on Wednesday left its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributed the overshoot in inflation to tariffs, adding "but there's an expectation that sometime in the middle quarters of the year we'll see tariff inflation topping out."

"This report validates the pivot of the Fed away from labor market risks back toward price stability," said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

The PPI for final demand jumped 0.5% last month, the biggest rise since ‌July, after an unrevised 0.2% gain in November, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI climbing 0.2%.

In ​the 12 months through December, the PPI increased 3.0% after rising by the same margin in November. The PPI advanced 3.0% in 2025 after rising 3.5% in 2024.

The BLS is now caught up on the PPI and Consumer Price Index releases that were delayed by the 43-day shutdown of the federal government. Another shutdown is looming at midnight, though it could be brief. U.S. Senate Democrats and President Donald Trump reached a deal on ‍Thursday that would allow Congress to pass a spending bill that covers a wide swath of government operations, including at the Labor Department, while they negotiate new limits on Trump's immigration crackdown.

Even if the Senate passes the deal, it would also have to win approval from the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, which is out of session this week. The BLS' closely watched employment report for January is scheduled for release next Friday, with the CPI report due a week after.

More

US producer prices post biggest gain in five months, businesses passing on tariffs | Reuters

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

If this works in the real world, not just the lab, a lot more silver will be needed.

Thin layer of silver could save Li batteries from failure

Researchers at Stanford University have developed an extremely thin silver layer for solid electrolytes that enhances resistance to cracking.

If successfully scaled, the technology could advance both the safety and durability of lithium metal batteries. The study was published in Nature Materials.

A solid electrolyte, situated between the opposing electrodes of a battery, should, in theory, facilitate a rechargeable lithium metal battery that is safer with significantly greater energy density and a much faster charge rate than the lithium-ion batteries currently available on the market.

For many years, researchers and engineers have investigated various approaches to unlock the substantial potential of lithium metal batteries. A persistent challenge with solid, crystalline electrolytes is the formation of tiny fissures that expand during operation, ultimately leading to battery failure.

In this study, the researchers, expanding on their three-year-old findings that detailed the formation and growth of these minute imperfections, have found that annealing a very thin layer of silver on the surface of the solid electrolyte significantly addresses the issue.

The silver coating enhances the electrolyte's surface strength fivefold against fractures caused by mechanical stress. It reduces the susceptibility of existing imperfections to lithium infiltration, particularly during rapid recharging, which transforms the nano fissures into nano crevices,  eventually leading to battery failure.

The solid electrolyte that we and others are working on improving is a kind of ceramic that allows the lithium-ions to shuttle back and forth easily, but it’s brittle. On an incredibly small scale, it’s not unlike ceramic plates or bowls you have at home that have tiny cracks on their surfaces.

Wendy Gu, Associate Professor and Study Senior Author, Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University

Related Stories

A real-world solid-state battery is made of layers of stacked cathode-electrolyte-anode sheets. Manufacturing these without even the tiniest imperfections would be nearly impossible and very expensive. We decided a protective surface may be more realistic, and just a little bit of silver seems to do a pretty good job,” said Gu.

Silver-Lithium Switch

Previous investigations conducted by various scientists explored the application of metallic silver coatings on the identical solid electrolyte material, referred to as "LLZO" due to its composition of lithium, lanthanum, and zirconium atoms, along with oxygen, which is the focus of the current study.

While prior research used metallic silver to enhance battery efficiency, the present study employed a dissolved form of silver that has lost an electron (Ag+). This dissolved, charged form of silver – in contrast to metallic, solid silver – plays a direct role in reinforcing the ceramics against the formation of cracks.

The researchers applied a 3-nanometer-thick layer of silver onto the surfaces of LLZO, subsequently heating the samples to a temperature of 300 °C (572 °F). During the heating process, the silver atoms infiltrated the surface of the electrolyte, swapping positions with significantly smaller lithium atoms to a depth ranging from 20 to 50 nm.

The silver remained in the form of positively charged ions rather than reverting to metallic silver, which the scientists believe is crucial in mitigating crack formation. In areas where imperfections are present, the existence of some positive silver ions also inhibits lithium from penetrating and developing harmful branches within the electrolyte.

Our study shows that nanoscale silver doping can fundamentally alter how cracks initiate and propagate at the electrolyte surface, producing durable, failure-resistant solid electrolytes for next-generation energy storage technologies.

Xin Xu, Assistant Professor, Engineering, Arizona State University

Xu led the research as a postdoctoral scholar at Stanford.

This method may be extended to a broad class of ceramics. It demonstrates ultrathin surface coatings can make the electrolyte less brittle and more stable under extreme electrochemical and mechanical conditions, like fast charging and pressure,” said Xu, one of the researchers at Stanford working under Professor William Chueh, senior author of the study and director of the Precourt Institute for Energy.

More

Thin layer of silver could save Li batteries from failure

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

"I know but one sure tip from a broker.... your margin call."

 Jesse Livermore, stock manipulator.

Saturday, 31 January 2026

Special Update 31/01/2026 Turning Away The World. A Silver Crash

 Baltic Dry Index. 2148 +146       Brent Crude 69.32

Spot Gold 4907                              Spot Silver 85.25

U S 2 Year Yield 3.52 -0.01 

US Federal Debt. 38.676 trillion US GDP 31.111 trillion

Imagination is the only weapon in the war with reality.

Lewis Carroll.

On the last trading day of the month, massive volatility.

An interesting, if largely unpredictable February lies ahead.

But dinosaur Graeme wonders, where are all the losses (7 trillion) hiding? Who’s damaged but still solvent? Who’s insolvent but hiding it?

Are any US banks and shadow banks impaired?

Was the NY Fed involved behind the scenes?

The answers to some of this will come out in February. Interestingly, the Shanghai price of physical silver hasn't crashed and remains at $122/oz.  Is the Comex paper silver price a gigantic error?

Silver plunges 30% in worst day since 1980, gold tumbles as Warsh pick eases Fed independence fear

Published Fri, Jan 30 2026 5:31 AM EST Updated Fri, Jan 30 2026 3:45 PM EST

Gold and silver prices plunged Friday, as President Donald Trump’s nomination for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appeared to relieve concerns about the central bank’s independence and sent the dollar soaring.

Spot silver was down 28% at $83.45 an ounce, trading near its lows of the day. Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980.

Meanwhile, spot gold shed around 9% to trade at $4,895.22 an ounce. Gold futures dropped 11.4% to settle at $4,745.10.

The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh’s nomination. However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits. Metals were also under pressure as the dollar spiked higher, making it more expensive for foreign investors to buy gold and silver and spoiling the theory that metals would replace the greenback as the globe’s reserve currency.

The dollar index last traded around 0.8% higher.

“This is getting crazy,” said Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. “Most of this is probably ‘forced selling.’ This has been the hottest asset for day traders and other short-term traders recently. So, there has been some leverage built up in silver. With the huge decline today, the margin calls went out.”

Trump picks Warsh

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett had been the favorite to replace Powell for some time, but Warsh became the front-runner in prediction markets in recent days.

In a note on Friday morning, Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha said the market was “trading Warsh hawkish.”

“The Warsh pick should help stabilize the dollar some and reduce (though not eliminate) the asymmetric risk of deep extended dollar weakness by challenging debasement trades – which is also why gold and silver are sharply lower,” the firm’s vice chairman said.

“But, we advise against overdoing the Warsh hawkish trade across asset markets – and even see some risk of a whipsaw. We see Warsh as a pragmatist not an ideological hawk in the tradition of the independent conservative central banker.”

Claudio Wewel, FX strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday that a “perfect storm” of geopolitical tensions had helped precious metals move higher this year, pointing to the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Washington’s threats to use military force in Greenland and Iran.

More recently, he said, speculation over who would be nominated as the next Fed chair had been influencing metals markets.

“The market has clearly been pricing the risk of a much more dovish contender, that’s been largely helping the gold price along with other precious metal prices. Over the last 24 hours, the news flow has changed a little bit,” Wewel said, prior to Trump’s announcement.

‘Even good assets can sell-off’

Gold and silver both enjoyed record-smashing rallies in 2025, surging 66% and 135%, respectively, over the course of the year.

Coeur Mining lost 17%. Silver ETFs were dragged into the action, with the ProShares Ultra Silver fund last seen more than 62% lower. The iShares Silver Trust ETF lost 31%. Both funds were headed for their worst days on record.

Precious metals have been on a stellar rally over the past 12 months, amid broader market volatility, the decline of the U.S. dollar, bubbling geopolitical tensions and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Katy Stoves, investment manager at British wealth management firm Mattioli Woods, told CNBC on Friday morning that the moves were likely “a market-wide reassessment of concentration risk.”

 “Just as tech stocks — particularly AI-related names — have dominated market attention and capital flows, gold has similarly seen intense positioning and crowding,” she said. “When everyone is leaning the same way, even good assets can sell off as positions get unwound. The parallel isn’t accidental: both represent areas where capital has flooded in based on powerful narratives, and concentrated positions eventually face their day of reckoning.”

Meanwhile, Toni Meadows, head of investment at BRI Wealth Management, contended that gold’s run to the $5,000 mark had happened “too easily.” He noted that the unwinding of the greenback had supported gold prices, but that the dollar had appeared to stabilize.

“Central bank buying has driven the longer-term rally but this has tailed off in recent months,” he said. “The case for further reserve diversification is still there though as Trump’s trade policies and intervention in foreign affairs will make a lot of countries nervous about holding U.S. assets, especially those countries in the emerging markets or aligned to China or Russia. Silver will mirror the direction of gold, so it is not surprising to see falls there.”

Silver, gold sell off as precious metals markets nosedive

Microsoft stock is flat the day after sinking 10%. Here’s why

Published Fri, Jan 30 2026 6:47 AM EST Updated Fri, Jan 30 2026 12:30 PM EST

Microsoft’s stock was largely flat on Friday, after the stock saw its biggest daily decline since 2020, sliding 10% Thursday after it reported earnings.

Shares fell despite the company’s second-quarter earnings beating analyst revenue expectations.

Like other hyperscalers, Microsoft has invested huge sums in its AI infrastructure buildout. But Meta reported huge AI spending on the same day and its stock jumped 8%.

Why did Microsoft’s stock drop?

Investors latched onto the growth of Microsoft’s cloud computing platform Azure and other cloud services, which came in at 39% below StreetAccount’s 39.4% consensus. Those areas saw 40% growth in the fiscal first quarter.

The company’s CFO Amy Hood said that the cloud business’ results could have been higher if the company had allocated more data center infrastructure to customers rather than prioritising in-house needs.

Implied operating margin for third-quarter also came up short, with Microsoft calling for about $12.6 billion in revenue from the More Personal Computing segment that includes Windows, which was lower than StreetAccount’s $13.7 billion consensus.

What analysts are saying

In a post-earnings note on Thursday, Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow said most investors focused solely on Azure growth to judge the health of Microsoft’s business, especially in its performance around AI.

“It now looks like the company will not really accelerate Azure further from here, due to the law of large numbers and extra capacity being used for its own, higher-margin, first party offerings like Co-Pilot and its own AI R&D efforts,” he said.

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Microsoft stock is flat the day after sinking 10%. Here's why

World leaders flock to Beijing, hedging against U.S. disruptions

Published Fri, Jan 30 2026 2:15 AM EST

BEIJING — Countries that shunned China during its trade dispute with the U.S. are now sending their leaders to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping — and are keen to strike business deals.

At least five national leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, have visited Xi in January alone. Uruguay’s President Yamandú Orsi is due to make the trip next week — the first by a South American leader since U.S. President Donald Trump captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife in early January.

The Canadian and British leaders’ trips are the first in at least eight years, while a visit by Ireland’s prime minister on Jan. 5 was the first in 14 years. China had closed its borders during the Covid-19 pandemic and only reopened them in earnest in early 2023.

“These visits reflect managed, selective resets under rising U.S. policy uncertainty, rather than a strategic pivot to China,” said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“Keeping communication channels open with Beijing is increasingly seen as preferable to disengagement,” she said, “particularly as the gains from selective resets with China become more visible, and U.S. policy has grown less predictable.”

Since taking office 12 months ago, Trump has wielded tariffs not just on China but a slew of U.S. trading partners. In recent months, he’s increased efforts to ramp up U.S. influence over VenezuelaIran and Greenland.

It’s an opportunity for Beijing, which has sought to portray itself as not only a partner for developing countries but also as a stabilizing force for the world.

“Maintaining distance from the United States indicates that these countries value ties with China’s large economy,” Cui Shoujun, an international studies professor at Renmin University of China, said in a phone interview Thursday. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.

European and other countries may still need to align with the U.S. on security issues, but they are now increasing economic engagement, Cui said.

Facilitating business deals

Large business delegations often accompany national leaders when making state visits. Nearly 60 British companies and cultural organizations sent representatives to accompany the U.K. prime minister on his China trip. British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca used the state visit to announce plans to invest $15 billion in China through 2030.

Similarly, during Carney’s visit, Canada agreed to cut tariffs on a limited number of China-made electric cars to 6.1% from 100%, in exchange for lower Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola seeds.

Global businesses have also long been keen to sell to China’s large consumer market, the second-largest in the world.

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Starmer, Carney, Orsi visit Beijing, China to strike deals

Tourists turning away from USA following planned social media checks

29 January 2026

Holidaymakers are now seemingly turning away from going to the USA following the announcement of planned social media checks. 

A new survey, by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) analysed the answers of 4,500 respondents from many different countries involved with the ESTA programme.

It found a third of tourists admit they are less likely to go to America if the social media proposals are introduced, Sky News reports. 

Proposals announced by US Customs and Border Protection in December, via a 'mandatory' notice published in the Federal Register, could mean overseas visitors would be required to make their social media activity over the last five years open to scrutiny.

The plans mean any hint of anti-American sentiment posted online could land tourists hoping to visit the country in hot water with border officials

If overseas visitors do fall in such a way, the WTTC estimates tourism spending could be cut by $15bn (£10.8bn). 

It could also hit a whopping 157,000 jobs. 

Some 66 per cent of respondents shared they were aware of the possible new regulations.

It's not the first time concerns have been raised about tourism to the US being impacted.

When the proposals were first announced, Peter Greenberg, aka The Travel Detective, told BBC 5 Live Breakfast that the US faces losing huge tourist revenue if the plans go ahead.

The News Travel Editor at CBS said: 'They're proposing up to a $15,000 bond to guarantee that when a visit is over, they don't extend their visa and they come home. How many people can afford that?

'Adding to that [the bond] is the new proposal that tourists may have to provide five years of social media history that needs to be inspected.

'Add those things together and you'll understand already why there's been a huge drop in inbound travel to the United States this summer, resulting in lost revenue that can never be recouped.' 

American President Donald Trump previously commented on whether he was worried about the plans impacting tourism.

According to Sky News, he said: 'We want safety, we want security, we want to make sure we're not letting the wrong people come into our country.'

WTTC CEO and president Gloria Guevara, noted that security is 'vital' but went on to outline the damage the new plans could cause. 

She explained: 'Security at the US border is vital, but the planned policy changes will damage job creation, which the US administration values so much.

'Even modest shifts in visitor behaviour, discouraged by the planned changes, will have real economic consequences for US travel and tourism, particularly in a highly competitive global market.'

It comes after we revealed how to get your phone ready if US border force ask you to go through it. 

Tourists turning away from USA following planned social media checks

In other news, trouble ahead for copper and silver? Well, less so for silver if this new material eventually lowers copper production. Silver is a big byproduct of copper production. But any tantalum nitride effect is probably still years away.

But see Monday’s LIR technical section.

Newly discovered material conducts heat nearly 3x faster than any metal

January 27, 2026

Data center servers, powerful smartphones, and your computer's motherboard have one thing in common. When these devices get too hot, their performance takes a hit, and we can't have that. That's why copper is used to manufacture them: this metal has high thermal conductivity, which means it can efficiently carry heat and dissipate it across its surface.

Now, copper is already pretty good at what it does. With a thermal conductivity of approximately 401 W/mK at room temperature, it's second only to silver by a wee bit, while being a lot less expensive to procure. But aerospace engineers at University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) have discovered a material that blows those two out of the water with nearly thrice the thermal conductivity.

Metallic theta-phase tantalum nitride exhibits an ultrahigh thermal conductivity of 1,100 W/mK, which means it's way more efficient at transporting heat than copper and silver. Their conductivity is limited by the strong interactions between free-moving electrons and atomic vibrations called phonons.

That name just rolls off the tongue, doesn't it? It refers to a specific crystal structure of this metallic compound which has certain properties – similar to how carbon can be found in the form of soft graphite, and also as hard diamond.

Using molecular structure analysis techniques like synchrotron-based X-ray scattering and ultrafast optical spectroscopy, the researchers found unusually weak electron-phonon interactions in this specific configuration of tantalum nitride. This allows for super-efficient heat flow through the material with a lot less resistance, vastly exceeding what we see with copper and silver. The findings were published in the journal Science this month.

"As AI technologies advance rapidly, heat-dissipation demands are pushing conventional metals like copper to their performance limits, and the heavy global reliance on copper in chips and AI accelerators is becoming a critical concern," explained Yongjie Hu, a professor at the UCLA Samueli School of Engineering who led the study.

This metallic material could prove to be a desirable alternative to copper in heat sinks – not just for computers and AI hardware, but also for aerospace systems and quantum computers that need to constantly run cool.

Source: UCLA

New material beats copper for heat dissipation

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

From market 'speed bumps' to recession odds, here are 3 major 2026 predictions from Goldman CEO David Solomon

January 28, 2026

David Solomon has laid out his big predictions for the path of markets and the economy in 2026.

The CEO of Goldman Sachs said he has a generally healthy outlook for markets and the US economy this year, though he also voiced some caution on emerging macro developments. Speaking to Bloomberg at Goldman's annual Asia-Pacific conference, he weighed in on what he expects to see through the rest of the year.

Uncertainty has defined the investing climate in recent months, with investors rattled by geopolitical events while concerns continue to mount over the health of the AI trade.

Here's what the banking exec thinks is coming next for markets:

1. The risk of a recession is just below 20%

The risk that the US economy will tip into a recession remains relatively low this year at just under 20%, Solomon estimated, calling the economic setup in the US especially "constructive."

"The base case for a recession is one out of seven," he said. "I think the chance of a recession this year is low in the US, and I don't think you'd see one unless there was some exogenous event that materially changed the current sentiment," he said.

Wall Street generally expects the US to avoid a downturn in 2026, given the investment flowing into AI, the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, and the growth-friendly policies from the Trump administration. The US economy is expected to have grown 5.4% in the fourth quarter, according to the latest estimate from Atlanta Fed economists.

2. Markets will have another strong year

Solomon said he expects 2026 to be a "strong capital markets year" around the world. He pointed to additional fiscal stimulus across various economies and to the move toward looser regulation in the US and Europe, a trend that's also thought to help stimulate the economy and support dealmaking.

More companies are also beginning to adopt AI, a trend that's likely to boost productivity and pave the way to higher economic growth and investment.

While there's a risk of a "potential bubble" brewing in AI stocks, the market rally appears to be broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven stocks, Solomon said, referring to how laggards like small-caps are now starting to outperform the market's top tech names.

"I think there's a broader level of participation and things are set up quite constructively for the next few years," he said.

3. Investors could hit geopolitical and regulatory "speed bumps"

While he's bullish on the outlook for markets, Solomon flagged the potential for hiccups along the way this year.

"There's a lot going on in the world. And as that stuff plays out, it can lead to speed bumps, or you know, distractions," Solomon said, pointing to last April, when President Trump's tariffs sparked a historic sell-off in stocks.

"The noise sometimes can sap confidence," Solomon added.

Investors have already gotten a few glimpses of how volatile the market could be this year. So far, stocks have been rattled by the US's raid on Venezuela, escalating tensions with Iran, and Trump's various threats to pressure Greenland into a sale, though equities have bounced back as tensions have subsided and Trump has eased his rhetoric on some of his policies.

From market 'speed bumps' to recession odds, here are 3 major 2026 predictions from Goldman CEO David Solomon

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Falling Battery Storage Costs Are Quietly Reshaping Electricity Markets

Featuring Christian Kaps. By Rachel Layne on January 23, 2026.

Sustainability and self-reliance motivated early adopters of solar energy and battery storage in Germany. Now, falling costs—and rising electricity prices—could compel more people to pull back from the grid.

As solar panel and battery prices drop, research by Harvard Business School Assistant Professor Christian Kaps predicts some 54% of German households would benefit from using a solar-battery combination. The rise of self-generated electricity would have major implications for German utilities and the country’s power grid, which gets a substantial, yet decreasing share of energy from fossil fuels.

Incentives and subsidies helped drive $807 billion in renewal energy investment globally in 2024 alone, as part of efforts to confront climate change. With electricity costs surging in many parts of the world, Germans stand to become producers and consumers of power in one of the most advanced clean-energy economies—even without such enticements.

“In many European countries, at least in many markets with higher electricity prices, solar and storage is going to be a profitable investment,” says Kaps, coauthor of “Residential Battery Storage—Reshaping the Way We Do Electricity” with Serguei Netessine, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The article is forthcoming in the journal Operations Research.

The shift wouldn’t be without consequences. Researchers predict that increased solar and storage adoption in Germany would reduce residential electricity demand by 38%, cutting utilities’ revenue. Rising generation and delivery costs could also challenge the industry’s pay-per-use model.

Rapid adoption, dizzying change

Since the early 2000s, solar panel prices have dropped 85%, the authors note. And the cost of lithium-ion batteries has dropped by nearly 90% during the decade until 2020. The trend helped spur a 20-fold increase in German household battery systems between 2015 and 2020.

As more households use battery storage, it becomes harder for utilities to predict how much electricity to generate and send to the grid—and when to do it. Demand from homes with battery-solar setups can drop to near zero when it’s sunny outside, but spike during cold, dark days that deplete home storage. It’s unlikely that most households will be totally self-sufficient and leave the larger electricity grid completely, the researchers write.

Why Germans turned to storage

Kaps and Netessine analyzed solar-storage adoption from 2018 through 2020, using data from 3,200 households served by the German firm Solarwatt. Back then, batteries cost almost twice as much as today, but consumers who installed them prioritized self-sufficiency and the potential to slash climate-damaging emissions, motives the authors call “nonmarket valuation.” The change cost households a median 29 euro cents (34 cents in the US) more per kilowatt hour than relying on the power grid.

“It was really this idea of, ‘I'm producing solar power myself. I want to use more of that myself,’” Kaps says. “It's a sustainability argument. Germany has a long history of debating how to generate electricity.”

More

Falling Battery Storage Costs Are Quietly Reshaping Electricity Markets | Working Knowledge

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion.   Approx. 12 minutes.

Franz Horneck (c.1690-c.1724) - Fagottkonzert Es-Dur

Franz Horneck (c.1690-c.1724) - Fagottkonzert Es-Dur

Next, more fun with really big numbers. Where the US federal deficit is heading? Approx.20 minutes.

TREE vs Graham's Number - Numberphile

TREE vs Graham's Number - Numberphile

Finally, some of Scotland’s many castles. Pay attention to castle number 17. Sorry about some of the glaring mispronunciations. Approx. 29 minutes.  Next week, the castles of England. After that Ireland and the Wales.

25 Beautiful Castles in Scotland To Visit in 2025 | Scotland Travel Video

25 Beautiful Castles in Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 To Visit in 2025 | Scotland Travel Video

“I’m not strange, weird, off, nor crazy, my reality is just different from yours.”

President Trump, with apologies to Lewis Carroll.